Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Oliver Kapanen
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pageau wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Kapanen 47.1% (+13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 69.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 93.7%
Neutral zone
Pageau 89.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 87.2%
87.2%
12.8%
Pageau
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pageau
Kapanen
Last 7: Pageau 5-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Kapanen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
2
Pageau
Kapanen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
46.5% (527)
+12.8%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
54.8% (42)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
39.5% (38)
+20.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Pageau is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (257).
Pageau shoots right. Kapanen is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (158).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kapanen
Home
58.1% (418)
47.0% (315)
Away
61.0% (559)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Pageau
Kapanen
P1
55.3%
41.6%
P2
61.5%
50.7%
P3
61.6%
47.6%
OT
75.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
63.2%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |