Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 51.2% vs Carter 58.5% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 82.4%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 75.1%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 75.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Cirelli
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Cirelli
Carter
Last 6: Cirelli 1-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
3
Cirelli
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
Cirelli
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (585)
59.7% (727)
-7.6%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
68.1% (72)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (172)
53.2% (139)
-6.7%
On power play, Carter has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Cirelli is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (327).
Cirelli shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Carter
Home
52.4% (462)
58.7% (455)
Away
50.1% (369)
60.0% (483)
By Period
Cirelli
Carter
P1
50.7%
61.3%
P2
49.6%
57.1%
P3
53.3%
59.8%
OT
61.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.5%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
56.0%▲
45.0%
51.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:31 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |