Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 34 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Tavares 54.4% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 46-35 in 81 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 65.6%
Defensive zone
Carter 72.7%
Neutral zone
Carter 52.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Carter
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
46
(81 meetings)
35
46
Carter
Tavares
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
28
Carter
Tavares
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
20
8
Carter
Tavares
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
10
Carter
Tavares
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
54.0% (16,169)
-0.7%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
56.4% (4,298)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
50.5% (624)
-4.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Home / Away
Carter
Tavares
Home
54.7% (5,752)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Carter
Tavares
P1
53.6%
55.0%
P2
52.8%
54.1%
P3
53.1%
54.0%
OT
56.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 01:08 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |