Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 52.3%). Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 19-16 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 56.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 56.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 54.8%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Carter
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
19
(35 meetings)
16
19
Carter
Paul
Last 10: Carter 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
8
Carter
Paul
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
4
Carter
Paul
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
7
Carter
Paul
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
52.6% (3,823)
+0.7%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
56.2% (484)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
46.9% (576)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Carter
Paul
Home
54.7% (5,752)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Carter
Paul
P1
53.6%
53.8%
P2
52.8%
51.0%
P3
53.1%
52.2%
OT
56.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:06 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 09:08 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |