Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs John Tavares
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kotkaniemi wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.6% vs Tavares 56.7% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 75.7%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 67.4%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 72.1%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
Last 7: Kotkaniemi 1-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (207)
57.7% (956)
-10.4%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
55.7% (244)
+44.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
52.2% (23)
-18.9%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +44.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
Home
46.5% (129)
57.4% (636)
Away
50.0% (84)
57.1% (587)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Tavares
P1
51.3%
57.1%
P2
46.1%
57.0%
P3
45.9%
57.6%
Final 5 min
48.2%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |