Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Hecht wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hecht 43.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hecht 90.2%
Defensive zone
Hecht 85.7%
Neutral zone
Hecht 89.3%
Result
Jochen Hecht favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Hecht
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Hecht
O'Reilly
Last 9: Hecht 1-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hecht
1
0
Hecht
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Hecht
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Hecht
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hecht
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (1,074)
56.2% (15,103)
-13.0%
Power Play
44.1% (93)
58.7% (3,395)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (207)
51.6% (2,769)
-9.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Hecht is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (899).
Hecht shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Hecht
O'Reilly
Home
45.5% (714)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
40.7% (668)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Hecht
O'Reilly
P1
41.9%
55.5%
P2
44.7%
57.0%
P3
43.1%
55.2%
OT
40.0%
62.7%
Final 5 min
44.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hecht
44.0%▲
41.5%
43.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 16:11 | Offensive | Jochen Hecht |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 02:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 2 | 03:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 01:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |