Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Mitchell 51.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 19-16 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 65.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Pavelski
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
16
(35 meetings)
19
16
Pavelski
Mitchell
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
5
Pavelski
Mitchell
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
4
10
Pavelski
Mitchell
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
1
Pavelski
Mitchell
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.8% (2,965)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.1% (196)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
44.1% (401)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Mitchell is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,264).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Mitchell
Home
56.4% (5,998)
54.4% (1,806)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.6% (1,756)
By Period
Pavelski
Mitchell
P1
53.5%
52.0%
P2
55.2%
49.9%
P3
53.9%
50.9%
OT
52.3%
69.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 14:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 01:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 17:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 12:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 07:52 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | John Mitchell |