Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Paul 52.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Pavelski
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Pavelski
Paul
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Paul
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
4
Pavelski
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Pavelski
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
52.6% (3,823)
+1.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.2% (484)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.9% (576)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Paul
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Pavelski
Paul
P1
53.5%
53.8%
P2
55.2%
51.0%
P3
53.9%
52.2%
OT
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 17:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 06:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |