Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Schmaltz 42.6% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 61.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 77.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 54.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Pavelski
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
41.3% (3,431)
+12.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
47.3% (655)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
47.4% (135)
+3.5%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,172).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Schmaltz
Home
56.4% (5,998)
42.8% (2,114)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
42.0% (2,107)
By Period
Pavelski
Schmaltz
P1
53.5%
41.3%
P2
55.2%
42.8%
P3
53.9%
43.1%
OT
52.3%
42.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2020 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2018 | OT | 00:35 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 23, 2018 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |