Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hischier on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hischier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Hischier 52.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Hischier leads 25-19 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Hischier 59.0%
Defensive zone
Hischier 59.1%
Neutral zone
Hischier 55.9%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Pavelski
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
25
(44 meetings)
19
25
Pavelski
Hischier
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
7
6
Pavelski
Hischier
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
3
9
Pavelski
Hischier
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hischier
9
10
Pavelski
Hischier
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.6% (8,444)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.9% (1,749)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
49.3% (918)
+1.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Hischier is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,009).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hischier
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.0% (5,477)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.4% (5,634)
By Period
Pavelski
Hischier
P1
53.5%
52.9%
P2
55.2%
52.6%
P3
53.9%
52.7%
OT
52.3%
50.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Hischier
66.0%▲
58.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 11:08 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 15:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 13:46 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:12 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |