Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Sturm 56.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Pavelski
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Pavelski
Sturm
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Pavelski
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
5
Pavelski
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Pavelski
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
57.1% (2,681)
-3.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
61.3% (62)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
51.7% (482)
-0.8%
On even strength, Sturm has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Sturm is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,066).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Sturm
Home
56.4% (5,998)
57.3% (1,595)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
55.5% (1,630)
By Period
Pavelski
Sturm
P1
53.5%
56.4%
P2
55.2%
55.1%
P3
53.9%
57.6%
OT
52.3%
60.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 17:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 1 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 1 | 04:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |