Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Jokinen 46.3% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 93.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 92.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 93.6%
93.6%
6.4%
Pavelski
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Pavelski
Jokinen
Last 7: Pavelski 6-1 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Jokinen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Jokinen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
45.3% (1,142)
+10.4%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
53.4% (131)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
43.9% (57)
+8.1%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Jokinen is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jokinen
Home
59.2% (622)
48.8% (692)
Away
52.6% (584)
42.9% (638)
By Period
Pavelski
Jokinen
P1
54.1%
44.9%
P2
56.4%
45.7%
P3
56.4%
46.9%
OT
65.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Jokinen
38.0%▼
42.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | OT | 01:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 12:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |