Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Jokinen 46.4% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 27-15 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 96.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 96.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 95.4%
95.4%
4.6%
Pavelski
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
15
(42 meetings)
27
15
Pavelski
Jokinen
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
7
Pavelski
Jokinen
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
13
3
Pavelski
Jokinen
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Pavelski
Jokinen
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
45.8% (3,924)
+7.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.8% (585)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.9% (247)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Jokinen is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,548).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Jokinen
Home
56.4% (5,998)
47.4% (2,345)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
45.3% (2,443)
By Period
Pavelski
Jokinen
P1
53.5%
45.6%
P2
55.2%
47.5%
P3
53.9%
45.4%
OT
52.3%
56.1%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Jokinen
38.0%▼
42.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | OT | 01:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 12:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 1 | 03:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 1 | 12:32 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 13, 2012 | 1 | 07:56 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |