Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Donato 44.7% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 71.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Pavelski
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Pavelski
Donato
Last 7: Pavelski 4-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Donato
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
44.0% (1,218)
+9.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
46.0% (248)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.7% (12)
+9.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Donato
Home
56.4% (5,998)
47.2% (743)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Pavelski
Donato
P1
53.5%
43.8%
P2
55.2%
44.9%
P3
53.9%
43.7%
OT
52.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:34 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 01:55 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |