Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Strome 44.6% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 71.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 75.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Pavelski
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Pavelski
Strome
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Strome
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
3
Pavelski
Strome
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Strome
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
44.2% (6,887)
+9.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
49.2% (855)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.5% (410)
+9.4%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Strome is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (2,379).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Strome
Home
56.4% (5,998)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
Pavelski
Strome
P1
53.5%
43.9%
P2
55.2%
45.4%
P3
53.9%
44.4%
OT
52.3%
46.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 14:14 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 3, 2020 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2018 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 16:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 05:16 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |