Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 18 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Kuraly 50.4% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 24-14 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 97.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 55.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 85.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Pavelski
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
14
(38 meetings)
24
14
Pavelski
Kuraly
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
15
3
Pavelski
Kuraly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
4
6
Pavelski
Kuraly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Pavelski
Kuraly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.6% (5,161)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.4% (101)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
44.4% (1,091)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,235).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kuraly
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Pavelski
Kuraly
P1
53.5%
51.2%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
53.9%
50.2%
OT
52.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 01:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |