Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.4% vs 53.8%). Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Pavelski
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Pavelski
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
55.3% (628)
-3.0%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
55.1% (216)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
40.2% (87)
+22.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Stamkos is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stamkos
Home
54.2% (360)
55.5% (499)
Away
52.6% (329)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Pavelski
Stamkos
P1
54.5%
50.7%
P2
56.7%
53.8%
P3
50.8%
55.9%
OT
30.8%
87.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |