Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Oshie 46.4% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Oshie 54.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 96.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 82.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Pavelski
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Pavelski
Oshie
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Oshie
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
2
Pavelski
Oshie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Oshie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
45.2% (764)
+8.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
47.7% (1,221)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
40.2% (164)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Oshie is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Oshie
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.7% (1,103)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
43.7% (1,047)
By Period
Pavelski
Oshie
P1
53.5%
47.3%
P2
55.2%
45.2%
P3
53.9%
46.7%
OT
52.3%
40.8%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 19, 2013 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 06:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 06:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 15:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 06:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 00:50 | Neutral | T.J. Oshie |