Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.7%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 69.4%
Defensive zone
Nosek 68.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Pavelski
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Pavelski
Nosek
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
3
Pavelski
Nosek
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Pavelski
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Pavelski
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
54.9% (2,710)
-1.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
45.8% (48)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
47.2% (428)
+3.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nosek
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Pavelski
Nosek
P1
53.5%
52.2%
P2
55.2%
54.1%
P3
53.9%
54.7%
OT
52.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |