Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Larsson 49.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 91.4%
Defensive zone
Larsson 57.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 79.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Thornton
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Thornton
Larsson
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
1
Thornton
Larsson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
2
Thornton
Larsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
2
Thornton
Larsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.5% (4,382)
+3.0%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
47.7% (153)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
43.8% (714)
+12.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Home / Away
Thornton
Larsson
Home
55.8% (4,271)
51.2% (2,493)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
48.0% (2,756)
By Period
Thornton
Larsson
P1
55.0%
51.6%
P2
53.3%
49.7%
P3
54.4%
47.2%
OT
56.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2021 | 3 | 07:33 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 11:15 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 02:50 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 19:37 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 16:47 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 15:25 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2016 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2016 | 1 | 00:32 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 03:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 02:53 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |