Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Kuraly 50.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 87.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 63.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Thornton
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Thornton
Kuraly
Last 10: Thornton 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
2
Thornton
Kuraly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
51.6% (5,161)
+1.9%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
56.4% (101)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
44.4% (1,091)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Thornton
Kuraly
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Thornton
Kuraly
P1
55.0%
51.2%
P2
53.3%
50.0%
P3
54.4%
50.2%
OT
56.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 19:43 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 09:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 10:18 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 04:50 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 02:11 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |