Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Aho 51.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 58.6%
Defensive zone
Thornton 60.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 59.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Thornton
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Thornton
Aho
Last 10: Thornton 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Thornton
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
3
Thornton
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.2% (6,646)
+3.3%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
58.9% (1,310)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
46.5% (465)
+10.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Thornton
Aho
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Thornton
Aho
P1
55.0%
51.1%
P2
53.3%
52.1%
P3
54.4%
50.8%
OT
56.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 3 | 15:41 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |