Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.7%). Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Nosek 53.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 68.6%
Defensive zone
Nosek 72.3%
Neutral zone
Nosek 51.2%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Thornton
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Thornton
Nosek
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
2
Thornton
Nosek
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Thornton
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
Thornton
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
54.9% (2,710)
-1.4%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
45.8% (48)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
47.2% (428)
+9.5%
On power play, Thornton has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Thornton
Nosek
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Thornton
Nosek
P1
55.0%
52.2%
P2
53.3%
54.1%
P3
54.4%
54.7%
OT
56.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 15:21 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 09:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 05:32 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 05:06 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 07:31 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 05:32 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 01:54 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 08:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |