Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.3%). Vitale wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vitale 54.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.1%
Defensive zone
Vitale 68.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Vitale
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Vitale
Hertl
Last 5: Vitale 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Vitale
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
2
0
Vitale
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
0
Vitale
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vitale
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,771)
53.9% (8,303)
+2.0%
Power Play
76.0% (25)
59.2% (1,995)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
46.3% (806)
+0.8%
On power play, Vitale has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vitale is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,430).
Vitale shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Vitale
Hertl
Home
56.1% (1,050)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.5% (1,048)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Vitale
Hertl
P1
52.9%
53.6%
P2
53.8%
54.2%
P3
57.5%
55.3%
OT
72.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
55.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 03:42 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 12:28 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |