Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ek wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.2% vs Tavares 56.8% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 66.5%
Defensive zone
Ek 72.7%
Neutral zone
Ek 70.6%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Ek
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Ek
Tavares
Last 10: Ek 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Ek
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Ek
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Ek
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (858)
57.7% (975)
-9.6%
Power Play
53.3% (272)
56.0% (250)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (188)
52.2% (23)
-4.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Ek is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Ek shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Ek
Tavares
Home
49.9% (693)
57.4% (636)
Away
48.3% (625)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Ek
Tavares
P1
47.4%
57.5%
P2
53.1%
56.9%
P3
46.3%
57.5%
OT
54.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
60.0%▲
52.0%
49.2%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 05:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |