Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Ek wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.2% vs Duchene 51.8% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.4%
Defensive zone
Ek 65.2%
Neutral zone
Ek 58.0%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Ek
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Ek
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ek
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Ek
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (858)
51.1% (366)
-3.0%
Power Play
53.3% (272)
61.5% (65)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (188)
16.7% (6)
+31.2%
On penalty kill, Ek has a +31.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ek is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Ek shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Ek
Duchene
Home
49.9% (693)
51.7% (201)
Away
48.3% (625)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Ek
Duchene
P1
47.4%
49.0%
P2
53.1%
57.1%
P3
46.3%
49.2%
OT
54.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
60.0%▲
52.0%
49.2%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |