Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 90.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.2%
Neutral zone
Ward 61.8%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Ward
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ward
Dowd
Last 7: Ward 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Ward
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
1
0
Ward
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Ward
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,186)
52.3% (6,036)
-1.0%
Power Play
53.4% (238)
56.1% (164)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (366)
44.1% (1,638)
-8.6%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Ward is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Ward shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Ward
Dowd
Home
50.3% (870)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
46.5% (921)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Ward
Dowd
P1
47.6%
51.5%
P2
47.5%
50.4%
P3
50.3%
50.3%
OT
30.8%
45.9%
Final 5 min
45.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |