Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 49.5% vs Zegras 39.5% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 86.9%
Defensive zone
Larsson 78.7%
Neutral zone
Zegras 64.0%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Larsson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larsson
Zegras
Last 6: Larsson 2-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Larsson
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larsson
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (4,382)
39.0% (1,703)
+11.5%
Power Play
47.7% (153)
38.5% (148)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (714)
25.0% (8)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Larsson has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Larsson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,402).
Larsson shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
Larsson
Zegras
Home
51.2% (2,493)
40.5% (908)
Away
48.0% (2,756)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Larsson
Zegras
P1
51.6%
40.0%
P2
49.7%
38.6%
P3
47.2%
38.2%
OT
52.3%
31.6%
Final 5 min
49.4%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.5%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 08:35 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |