Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.3% vs Tavares 54.4% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 82.8%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 82.1%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 82.1%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Fantilli
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
18
(30 meetings)
12
18
Fantilli
Tavares
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
6
Fantilli
Tavares
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
5
3
Fantilli
Tavares
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
9
Fantilli
Tavares
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,179)
54.0% (16,169)
-9.3%
Power Play
51.4% (210)
56.4% (4,298)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (26)
50.5% (624)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Fantilli is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,604).
Fantilli shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Tavares
Home
47.3% (1,209)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
42.9% (1,206)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Fantilli
Tavares
P1
43.8%
55.0%
P2
46.3%
54.1%
P3
45.9%
54.0%
OT
25.8%
55.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
44.0%▼
46.5%
45.1%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 08:50 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 01:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |