Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Toews 60.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Tavares
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Tavares
Toews
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Tavares
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
3
Tavares
Toews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
62.6% (728)
-4.9%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
59.4% (143)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
46.9% (32)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Tavares
Toews
Home
57.4% (636)
61.1% (455)
Away
57.2% (612)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Tavares
Toews
P1
57.5%
59.7%
P2
56.9%
66.7%
P3
57.5%
58.4%
OT
57.1%
80.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |