Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Norris 49.9% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 60.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 66.8%
66.8%
33.2%
Tavares
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Tavares
Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Norris
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Norris
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
50.5% (388)
+7.2%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
47.6% (84)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
42.9% (7)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Tavares
Norris
Home
57.4% (636)
48.1% (233)
Away
57.2% (612)
51.6% (246)
By Period
Tavares
Norris
P1
57.5%
53.1%
P2
56.9%
49.2%
P3
57.5%
48.4%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |