Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Kolesar 43.3% (+12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 66.2%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 63.1%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 73.1%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 68.6%
31.4%
68.6%
Tavares
Kolesar
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Tavares
Kolesar
Last 6: Tavares 2-4 Kolesar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
0
1
Tavares
Kolesar
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Kolesar
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
1
2
Tavares
Kolesar
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kolesar
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
41.8% (383)
+12.2%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
50.0% (6)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
35.3% (17)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kolesar shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Kolesar is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kolesar
Home
56.1% (10,525)
38.0% (192)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
44.9% (214)
By Period
Tavares
Kolesar
P1
55.0%
42.1%
P2
54.1%
43.2%
P3
54.0%
38.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Kolesar
38.0%▬
38.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |