Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +21.5% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Hayes 42.7% (+21.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 85.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 89.5%
89.5%
10.5%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
31.9% (91)
+25.8%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
64.3% (14)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
0.0% (1)
+52.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
57.4% (636)
30.6% (49)
Away
57.2% (612)
40.4% (57)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
57.5%
22.9%
P2
56.9%
40.0%
P3
57.5%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
30.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |