Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.2% vs 56.9%). Look for Draisaitl on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Draisaitl 56.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Draisaitl leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 60.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Tavares
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Tavares
Draisaitl
Last 10: Tavares 3-7 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
3
Tavares
Draisaitl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
5
Tavares
Draisaitl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Draisaitl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
55.9% (835)
+1.8%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
61.8% (228)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
50.0% (40)
+2.2%
On power play, Draisaitl has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Draisaitl is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (708).
Home / Away
Tavares
Draisaitl
Home
57.4% (636)
55.1% (508)
Away
57.1% (587)
58.5% (595)
By Period
Tavares
Draisaitl
P1
57.1%
55.8%
P2
57.0%
55.7%
P3
57.6%
59.0%
OT
57.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |