Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kasper shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Kasper 50.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 80.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Tavares
Kasper
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Tavares
Kasper
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Kasper
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Kasper
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
2
Tavares
Kasper
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Kasper
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kasper
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
51.4% (366)
+6.3%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
33.3% (9)
+22.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
31.6% (19)
+20.6%
On power play, Tavares has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kasper shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Kasper is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kasper
Home
57.4% (636)
51.5% (194)
Away
57.1% (587)
48.5% (200)
By Period
Tavares
Kasper
P1
57.1%
54.1%
P2
57.0%
52.1%
P3
57.6%
43.4%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |