Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +19.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.8% vs Barzal 41.4% (+19.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 74.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tavares
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (691)
40.4% (456)
+18.6%
Power Play
57.2% (173)
34.2% (38)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
63.6% (11)
28.6% (7)
+35.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
58.0% (500)
38.0% (242)
Away
59.7% (375)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
59.5%
46.6%
P2
58.5%
35.4%
P3
58.2%
38.0%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:39 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |