Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Barzal 41.9% (+17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 81.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 71.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 84.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 83.5%
83.5%
16.5%
Tavares
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Tavares
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
40.9% (469)
+16.8%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
34.2% (38)
+21.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
28.6% (7)
+23.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Tavares
Barzal
Home
57.4% (636)
39.2% (250)
Away
57.2% (612)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Tavares
Barzal
P1
57.5%
46.3%
P2
56.9%
36.7%
P3
57.5%
38.5%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:39 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |