Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Backlund 49.7% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 93.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 63.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Backlund
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Tavares
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
50.1% (930)
+7.6%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
51.5% (66)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
47.8% (293)
+4.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (926).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
57.4% (636)
48.1% (636)
Away
57.1% (587)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
57.1%
45.2%
P2
57.0%
54.2%
P3
57.6%
48.8%
OT
57.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Backlund
46.0%▼
48.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |