Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Backlund 49.8% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 92.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 64.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Tavares
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Backlund
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Tavares
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
50.5% (944)
+7.2%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
51.5% (66)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
47.1% (297)
+5.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Tavares
Backlund
Home
57.4% (636)
48.1% (636)
Away
57.2% (612)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Tavares
Backlund
P1
57.5%
45.4%
P2
56.9%
54.1%
P3
57.5%
49.2%
OT
57.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |