Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 53.8% vs Richards 49.6% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.2%
Defensive zone
Richards 64.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Tavares
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Tavares
Richards
Last 6: Tavares 4-2 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Richards
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Richards
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (1,077)
49.7% (352)
+4.3%
Power Play
54.5% (275)
42.9% (7)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (18)
49.1% (116)
+0.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Tavares is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Tavares shoots left. Richards is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Tavares
Richards
Home
56.8% (655)
49.4% (247)
Away
51.6% (715)
49.6% (228)
By Period
Tavares
Richards
P1
54.1%
53.8%
P2
53.9%
47.7%
P3
54.3%
47.3%
OT
54.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.9%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.1%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |