Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 26 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Richards 50.5% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 34-27 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 68.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Tavares
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
27
(61 meetings)
34
27
Tavares
Richards
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
8
Tavares
Richards
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
8
10
Tavares
Richards
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
8
9
Tavares
Richards
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (15,885)
50.0% (3,722)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.5% (4,221)
54.6% (445)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (612)
51.4% (502)
-0.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,318).
Tavares shoots left. Richards is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,122).
Home / Away
Tavares
Richards
Home
56.1% (10,389)
50.8% (2,363)
Away
52.7% (10,358)
50.3% (2,336)
By Period
Tavares
Richards
P1
55.1%
49.6%
P2
54.1%
52.3%
P3
54.0%
49.3%
OT
56.0%
58.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2016 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 19:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 12:56 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 15:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 3 | 04:28 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 12:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Mike Richards |