Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 70.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 77.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.9%
26.1%
73.9%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Tavares
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
49.7% (1,038)
+8.0%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
63.7% (157)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
34.4% (32)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
57.4% (636)
53.1% (618)
Away
57.2% (612)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
57.5%
49.3%
P2
56.9%
53.0%
P3
57.5%
50.7%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |