John Tavares vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 37 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 53-48 in 101 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 75.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 66.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Tavares
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
53
(101 meetings)
48
53
Tavares
MacKinnon
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
16
Tavares
MacKinnon
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
16
21
Tavares
MacKinnon
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
14
16
Tavares
MacKinnon
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,150)
46.1% (11,255)
+7.9%
Power Play
56.4% (4,292)
53.2% (1,418)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
42.8% (502)
+7.7%
On even strength, Tavares has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,527).
Home / Away
Tavares
MacKinnon
Home
56.1% (10,525)
49.7% (6,459)
Away
52.7% (10,570)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Tavares
MacKinnon
P1
55.0%
47.4%
P2
54.1%
46.6%
P3
54.0%
46.1%
OT
55.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.4%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 12:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |