Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +25.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Ostlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Ostlund 36.5% (+25.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 88.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 87.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Tavares
Ostlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Ostlund
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Ostlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Ostlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Ostlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Ostlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Ostlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
32.2% (261)
+25.5%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
11.1% (9)
+44.9%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
33.3% (3)
+18.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +44.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostlund shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Ostlund is 28.7% vs left-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Tavares
Ostlund
Home
57.4% (636)
37.3% (142)
Away
57.2% (612)
25.2% (131)
By Period
Tavares
Ostlund
P1
57.5%
34.0%
P2
56.9%
32.6%
P3
57.5%
27.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
23.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Ostlund
46.0%▲
34.5%
31.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Noah Ostlund |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 05:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |