Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs McLeod 47.4% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Tavares
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Tavares
McLeod
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
4
Tavares
McLeod
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
4
Tavares
McLeod
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
4
Tavares
McLeod
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
49.0% (827)
+8.7%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
44.0% (91)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
43.0% (272)
+9.2%
On power play, Tavares has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Tavares
McLeod
Home
57.4% (636)
48.5% (619)
Away
57.2% (612)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Tavares
McLeod
P1
57.5%
52.7%
P2
56.9%
43.9%
P3
57.5%
45.8%
OT
57.1%
35.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |