Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 61.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 63.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 57.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Tavares
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
55.7% (856)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
57.5% (233)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
50.0% (144)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Tavares
O'Reilly
Home
57.4% (636)
55.5% (616)
Away
57.2% (612)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Tavares
O'Reilly
P1
57.5%
58.1%
P2
56.9%
54.9%
P3
57.5%
53.9%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |