Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Steel 50.6% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.7%
Defensive zone
Steel 76.5%
Neutral zone
Steel 55.5%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 76.5%
23.5%
76.5%
Tavares
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Tavares
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
52.5% (200)
+5.2%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
71.4% (7)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
40.0% (45)
+12.2%
On power play, Steel has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Tavares
Steel
Home
57.4% (636)
49.5% (109)
Away
57.2% (612)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Tavares
Steel
P1
57.5%
49.5%
P2
56.9%
47.5%
P3
57.5%
56.6%
OT
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Sam Steel |