Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 57 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Monahan 51.2% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 94-78 in 172 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Tavares
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
94
-
78
(172 meetings)
94
78
Tavares
Monahan
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
25
26
Tavares
Monahan
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
35
22
Tavares
Monahan
57 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
34
30
Tavares
Monahan
64 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
51.1% (11,407)
+2.9%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
53.6% (2,582)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
45.9% (772)
+4.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Tavares
Monahan
Home
56.1% (10,525)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Tavares
Monahan
P1
55.0%
51.0%
P2
54.1%
51.7%
P3
54.0%
51.0%
OT
55.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
54.7%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | OT | 01:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 03:08 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 14:09 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 11, 2023 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |