Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Crosby 55.4% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 55.1%
Defensive zone
Crosby 52.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 50.2%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Tavares
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Tavares
Crosby
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Tavares
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Tavares
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Crosby
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
53.6% (1,008)
+4.1%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
65.0% (246)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
60.0% (15)
-7.8%
On power play, Crosby has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Crosby is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (896).
Home / Away
Tavares
Crosby
Home
57.4% (636)
56.9% (675)
Away
57.1% (587)
54.7% (594)
By Period
Tavares
Crosby
P1
57.1%
55.6%
P2
57.0%
53.3%
P3
57.6%
58.7%
OT
57.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.6%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Crosby
62.0%▲
53.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |