Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Crosby 55.1% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 61.9%
Defensive zone
Crosby 56.6%
Neutral zone
Crosby 53.7%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Tavares
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Tavares
Crosby
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Tavares
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Tavares
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Crosby
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
53.3% (1,025)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
64.7% (249)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
60.0% (15)
-7.8%
On power play, Crosby has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Crosby is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
Tavares
Crosby
Home
57.4% (636)
56.9% (675)
Away
57.2% (612)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Tavares
Crosby
P1
57.5%
55.1%
P2
56.9%
53.1%
P3
57.5%
58.5%
OT
57.1%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:57 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |