Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Novak 42.5% (+16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 91.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 93.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Tavares
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Novak
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
40.4% (408)
+17.3%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
45.5% (33)
+10.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Tavares
Novak
Home
57.4% (636)
42.0% (212)
Away
57.2% (612)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Tavares
Novak
P1
57.5%
41.9%
P2
56.9%
39.3%
P3
57.5%
42.1%
OT
57.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | John Tavares |